If you followed me last week, we finished 5-4 which made us 10-6 for the season. Not great numbers, but once again, NC State broke my heart and cost me 2 picks there. But as Luke Combs said, “ice cold beer never broke your heart” so let’s ice down those coolers and get ready for a very interesting week 3.
**Please note that I will not weigh in on all games, only the ones I like and/or see potential to make a little money on. For example, Michigan should manhandle NIU; however, a 27-point spread is tough to predict because the garbage time points still can bust a spread. The same goes for Georgia against South Carolina. 30 points is a lot to cover, especially when UGA will be pulling starters out once they run up the score.**
UCF at Louisville (UCF -7; o/u 68): UCF had a very impressive come-from-behind win against Boise State in their week 1 Thursday night matchup. That on top of a 63-14 blowout against Bethune Cookman has the boys riding fairly high.
Louisville took an absolute beating against Ole Miss to open the season then casually beat Eastern KY. Louisville QB, Malik Cunningham, has shown that he cannot throw the ball worth a damn and made Lane Kiffin look like a defensive genius.
Gambling Pick: UCF -7 – I think UCF shows up and wants to prove that they not only belong in the Top 10, but they belong there without question. I expect an absolute thrashing of Louisville and another terrible performance by Cunningham. Final Score: UCF 41 – Louisville 17
Michigan State at Miami (Miami -6.5; o/u 56.5): I believe this is a make-or-break game for Miami. The U is not back and they are lucky to be sitting at 1-1. They narrowly escaped App State last week (but I predicted that and it made me some $$$) and got demolished by Bama. Miami will need to use this game to get the train back on the tracks.
Michigan State really has not played anyone tough enough to provide a good gauge on whether or not they are a good team. They gave up 283 yards and three touchdowns to Northwestern’s QB, Hunter Johnson. However, the Spartans have had a great running game which can really slow down and frustrate the U’s defense.
Gambling Pick: Michigan State +6.5 – Miami is 0-2 against the spread and have not looked good in their 2 games this season. On top of that D’Eriq King has only 1 touchdown to show for the season thus far. I think Miami’s talent was overhyped to promote their game against Alabama. Final Score: Miami 27 – MSU 24
FSUck at Wake Forest (Wake Forest -5.5; o/u 61.5): For as impressive as FSU looked marching down the field and forcing overtime against Notre Dame, they looked just as unimpressive in their loss to Jacksonville State. The only thing that made that game worse for FSU is Brady Scott proposing after that game. Dude WTF were you thinking? You got embarrassed by an FCS school and decide that now it the time to propose? Hold on to that ring another few weeks super chief. That has to be a bad omen bud. Hopefully your marriage goes a little better than that football game.
This being said, the Demon Deacons have not played anyone relevant so we do not truly know what they have. So far, they have beaten Old Dominion 42-10 and Norfolk State 41-16. FSU will be their first true relevant or ACC test of the year. Or at least as relevant as a bad FSU team can be.
Gambling Pick: Wake Forest -5.5 – FSU has not won a road game since 2019 and they just looked terrible against Jacksonville State. I think they continue their struggles against the Deacs and start the season 0-3. Final Score: Wake Forest 34 – FSU 20
Purdue at Notre Dame (ND -7.5; o/u 58): Notre Dame is 2-0; however, another team that has not looked good in their victories. They barely snuck past a very bad FSU team who just blew it to Jacksonville State then had a near disaster against Toledo.
For Purdue, Jack Plummer has been impressive to start the year while completing 73.8% of his passes. The Boilermakers were able to beat Oregon State 30-21 and UConn 49-0. This will be the true test to see how they do.
Gambling Pick: Purdue +7.5 – ND has been dancing dangerously close to giving away one of these games. The Irish is also the only team to win their game and still drop in the Top 25 rankings. They easily could have lost to both FSU and Toledo. I think this is their “Icarus” moment where they let Purdue hang in there and actually blow the game. Final Score: Purdue 30 – ND 27
Bonus gambling tip – if you are feeling frisky, I would potentially throw a small bet on Purdue to win this game outright as well
Alabama at Florida (Alabama – 14.5; o/u 59.5): Florida has not looked good in their wins against FAU and USF. Sure, the garbage time points and all the other excuses come out; however, I would want to be playing the best football of the season leading in to a matchup against Bama. Additionally, Florida has not named a primary QB at the time I am writing this.
Alabama is Alabama. What more do you want me to say? They don’t just win, they dominate.
Gambling Pick: Alabama -14.5 – Bama has won its last 7 games against Florida and 6 of them have been by at least 2 touchdowns. Even worse, 6 of those wins have come against a Gators team that is ranked in the top 18. This game will not be close and if there is a super spread, I would even say risk it for that. Final Score: Bama 42 – Florida 20
Auburn at Penn State (PSU -6; o/u 53): Auburn has posted back-to-back 60+ point games; however, it has not been against any worthwhile competition. Beating the crap out of Akron and Alabama State does not mean you can go in to a Whiteout and compete. Coupled by the fact that Bo Nix does not seem to show up in big games, especially big road games, this will be a battle to say the least.
Penn State on the other hand did beat Wisconsin in their season opener despite both teams looking sloppy at times. But the Nittany Lions do have one of the toughest defenses Auburn will see all year.
Gambling Prediction: PSU -6.5 & U53– I think yet again, Bo Nix will continue his struggles in important road games. After witnessing PSU’s QB struggles, I foresee a low scoring affair with Penn State taking the victory. Final Score: PSU 24 – Auburn 17
Cincinnati at Indiana (Cincinnati -4; o/u 50): The Bearcats are looking to get their first win over a Power 5 team and make a case to be ranked in top 4 and earn a spot in the CFP. Cincinnati has won their first 2 games by an average of 35 points while averaging 8.2 yards per play and 466.5 yards per game.
No one is really sure what Indiana is bringing to this game or is really capable of playing like. Will this be the team that got embarrassed against Iowa or the one who decimated Idaho be 42 points? The true test will be whether the Hoosiers can get consistent quarterback play from Michael Penix Jr.
Gambling Pick: Cincinnati -4 – I think Cincinnati will come in with a chip on their shoulder and prove that they deserve to be ranked at the top. Since 2018, the Bearcats are 4-2 against Power 5 teams and I do not think Indiana is that solid of a team. Final Score: Cincinnati 35 – Indiana 21