Notes from the Sheriff:
To lead things off, I did place money on Virginia +5.5 and I was so close to putting it straight moneyline; however, I do not trust either team. I am a little disappointed, but I did not include them in my pick’em challenge this week.
Either way, that loss by Miami last night is a perfect summary of how their season has gone to date (read my earlier article). A lot of optimism, glimpses of hope, and then just falling apart and leaving fans with heartbreak and misery. They were a top 25 team to start the year and they still are yet to beat a FBS opponent. What a joke!
Anyways, here are my picks for the week:
Boston College +15.5 against Clemson: While I am not sure that BC has what it takes to beat Clemson outright, especially losing their QB Phil Jurkovec for the season, I do not think Clemson has the offensive firepower anymore to beat BC by 3 scores. Against a Georgia Tech team that lost to Kennesaw State, Clemson could only hang 14. On top of that, Clemson has only scored 38 points against other FBS schools. Clemson’s defense will win them this game while the offense continues to be mediocre. Clemson wins, but doesn’t cover the spread. PS: if you are feeling spicy, throw some money on the under as well (not an official pick for the challenge).
Arkansas +18.5 against Georgia: As mentioned above, I am not sure that Arkansas has what it takes to beat UGA; however, I am never a fan of taking large spreads in games like this against what should be good teams. Arkansas’s defense has been lights out this season and I think they are more impressive than Clemson who was able to keep the Bulldogs to only 10 points earlier this year. Plus Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 5-1 ATS on the road in their last 6 road games as well.
Ole Miss +14.5 against Alabama: While Alabama looked dominant in the 1st half against Florida, they did let Florida back in to the game and squeak out with a 2 point win. In that game, Florida actually had 440 yards compared to Alabama’s 331. While, Saban is 23-0 against former assistants. I do not think the Lane Train will be the one to break that streak; however, I do think Ole Miss does have a more talented QB and explosive offense than Florida and should be able to keep it a close game. On top of everything, Alabama is 2-5 ATS against Ole Miss in their last 7 games. Side bet, the over is 5-2 in the last 7 Ole Miss games and the Over is 6-1 in Alabama games after the last game stayed under the points total – so I would take the over on this as well.
Michigan +2 against Wisconsin: Simply put, Wisconsin has been a turnover machine this season. They shoot themselves in the foot every opportunity they get. Over his last 8 games, Wisconsin’s QB Graham Mertz has thrown 3 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He turned the ball over 5 times to a Notre Dame defense that let FSUck put up 35+ points. While Wisconsin’s rush defense is good and will force Michigan to throw the ball, I think they will continue this trend of turnovers and basically hand the game to Michigan. I expect a low scoring game with a lot of critical turnovers by the Wisconsin offense.
LSU -3.5 against Auburn: So this is the only, non-upset game I have selected. As mentioned a few weeks ago, this game has Bo Nix on the road in a big game at a hostile stadium. What has that spelt out for his entire career? Another mediocre at best performance. On top of that, Auburn has not won in Death Valley since 1999. Weird right? I actually had to look that stat up as well. I expect Nix to collapse and LSU to win easily.