UFC 268 Picks and Preview

UFC 268 Usman VS Covington II; Picks and Preview

The UFC is heading to Madison Square Garden this Saturday, with a STACKED card, finishing up a very rare back to back weeks with a PPV event.  I know technically last weeks 267 card was on ESPN+ but that was a marketing scheme seeing they have this PPV coming right along, and the fight card was also loaded from top to bottom with awesome fights and we saw 2 new champions crowned in 42 year old Glover Teixeira becoming the new Light Heavyweight Champ and Petr Yan becoming Interim Bantamweight Champ.

Lets get right into the fights and makes some predictions. I am going to cover a few more fights than usual on this one because this card is fucking awesome.

Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (-315) VS Colby “Chaos” Covington (+230)

After making quick work of Jorge Masvidal and Gilbert Burns the reigning, defending, undisputed Welterweight Champion of the world Kamaru Usman (19-1) will put his title on the line once again against arch rival Colby Covington. The Nigerian Nightmare is currently on a 18-fight winning streak and is 14-0 since entering the UFC and is only getting more and more scarier. Coming into the UFC Usman was strictly known as a wrestler who had tremendous cardio and would take down opponents and smother them to victory, even getting the nickname Kamaru “Snooze”man for his boring stlye of fighting.  Usman just kept his head down and claimed victory after victory until finally Dana White had to give him his shot at the title where he defeated Tyron Woodley. Since claiming the title he team up with Trevor Whitman, one of MMA’s best boxing coaches, and now looks like the divisions best stand-up boxer as well. 

Colby Covington (16-2) last fought Sept. 2020 when he beat former champ Tyron Woodley via 5th round TKO.  Before that his previous fight was his first shot at the title against Usman in December of 2019. So we have only seen Colby in 2 fights in the last 2 years and one was a loss to the guy he is fighting Saturday night so obvious inactivity is going to be a factor in my decision here.  Another factor is the point I previously made in which he lost to Usman in the first fight, via 5th Rd. TKO, and Usman has continually showed good improvement from fight to fight.  Covington is a great fighter in his own right, with the wrestling backround to match Usman and cardio as good if not a little better than the champs.  I just am using my eyes on this one but I am picking the guy who just knocked out 2 fighters with the best chins in the game in Masvidal and Burns.  Gamebred ruthlessly mocked Usman calling him a boring fighter with no power who would never knock him out. Then he stepped in the ring sleeping onthe champs shoulder and changed his tune a bit.  Gilbert Burns was Usman’s friend and teammate.  Once that fight was announced, the champ changed teams, learn to polish up his boxing and then knocked him out.  This guy just seems different to me and I believe he is the best pound for pound fighter in the world and is still getting better.  Taking Usman at -315 could be one to go but those are terrible odds.  But take him to win by TKO and get him +155.

PREDICTION: Usman by TKO

Rose “Thug Rose” Namajunas (-106) VS Weili “Magnum” Zhang (-114)

It took current Strawweight champ Rose Namajunas (11-4) just 78-seconds and a beautifully executed headkick to reclaim her title when she took on former champ Weili Zhang (21-2) just seven months ago.

Leading up to that fight the talk was about how unstoppable Weili looked after destroying Jessica Andrade in 42 seconds to claim the title and in her only title defense against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Weili made her forehead look like the Elephant Man’s and won fight of the year.  Nobody saw the Thug Rose head kick coming and Weili’s reign ending so abruptly.  Least of Weili as she was just becoming a superstar in her home country of China and the power of the UFC marketing machine behind her to make her even more popular.  But then the kick happened and Rose was the champ.  We didn’t get to see Weili at her best or even in sync at all in the first fight and the people still wanted to see these to warriors go at it for a 5-round title fight they expected and ultimately Dana White agreed.

I don’t know how much we can take away from that first fight other than Thug Rose could chop down a tree with her legs, and I fully expect a much more competitive fight this time around.  “Magnum” will be coming into the octogon with a huge chip on her shoulder and the pressure of all of China on top of it all, can she control her emotions and focus in there or can Namajunas capitalize on another mistake by Weili?  This is a hard one to pick for me and obviously Vegas agrees.  But a hungry dog fights harder and I think the fighter who has something to prove will take this one.

PREDICTION: Weili Zhang by TKO

Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (-200) VS “Iron” Michael Chandler (+170)

Get your popcorn ready and try not to blink because this fight is going to be a barn burner!  We have not seen Justin Gaethje (22-3) since losing his Interim lightweight title in a unification fight with then champ Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2020.  As one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC “The Highlight” really lives up to his name claiming 9 fight bonuses in 8 fights in the UFC, all of which the judges were never needed as Gaethje either finishes or get finished. Prior to his loss to Khabib, Justin was riding a 4-fight win streak, all by knock outs, including wins over James Vick, Edson Barboza, Cowboy Cerrone all in the 1st round and the interim title fight where he destroyed Tony Ferguson before finishing him off in the 5th.  All this man has done since entering the UFC back in July 2017 is fight in wars and if he can take care of Chandler then he should be at the top of the line to fight the winner of Pourier and Oliveira or at the very least he should fight Islam Makhechev in a title eliminator.

Michael Chandler (22-6) came into the UFC already a veteran in the game and a former Bellator lightweight champion wanted to prove he belonged amongst the best in the world and he did just that in his debut when he knocked out Dan Hooker in the very first round when the world’s eyes were all watching because it was a Mcgregor card.  That KO and his post fight promo he did with Joe Rogan instantly made him a much bigger name and the UFC wanted to build on that giving him a title shot in his 2nd fight with the company against Charles Oliveira for Khabib’s then vacant title.  Chandler had Oliveira rocked near the end of round 1 but looked to get to excited and missed his chance to close him out.  Allowing Oliveira to recover in between rounds 1 and 2 and Chandler was then KO’d 19 seconds into round 2 ending what would have been a historic 5 months for a debuting fighter.

Both fighters are not known for letting the judges decide their fights for them and I don’t think this fight will be any different. This is one of the most anticipated fights of the year and its not even a main or co-main event, and for good reason. If you can find a prop bet that this fight will not go the distance i would take it.

PREDICTION: Gaethje via KO/TKO

Shane “Hurricane” Burgos (-200) VS Billy Quarantillo (+170)

Another exciting fight with 2 fighters that will be gunning for that fight of the night bonus while both will be performing in front of their home town fans in NYC.

Shane Burgos (13-3) was an up and coming contender in the Featherweight division going 3-0 to start his UFC career before running into Calvin Kattar and getting KO’d. He then went on to another 3 fight win streak before losing back to back fight of the night winning bouts against Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza.  The Hurricane does not have boring fights and this one should be no different.  Burgos might have the heavier hands of the 2 fighters but he is known to come in head first with little movement and takes just as good as he gives.

Billy Quarantillo is coming into this fight after defeating Gabriel Benitez via a 3rd Round TKO. Another exciting fighter who is still getting better with his hands which he showed in the Benitex fight and is very well conditioned and can outwork his opponents until they are tired and finish them off with his ground game/wrestling.  If Billy Q is able to control the fight and not allow it into the usual Hurricane slugfest we are used to with Burgos, take him down and tire him out than he will be in great shape. I am taking the underdog in this one with plus money. PREDICTION: Billy Q +170